Politics

Did the state Legislature just hose Cawthorn?

By Carolina Journal and the Lightning, Published: February 18, 2022

U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn may opt to return to the 11th Congressional District if new maps adopted by the Legislature remain intact for this year's election.

Cawthorn had declared that he planned to run in a newly created — and safer Republican — district east of the mountains and west of Charlotte. The new map, however, makes that district a toss-up, according to analysts, while the new 11th District is even redder than the current configuration, which was already a Republican stronghold.

“This remedial map reflects North Carolina's voters and political landscape, not a predetermined partisan outcome,” Sen. Warren Daniel, R-Burke, said during his presentation of the map on the Senate floor Thursday night. “Our state will have what we believe to be four of the most competitive districts in the nation. It meets the court’s metrics. It’s also one of the most competitive maps in the country, that we think is fair.”
Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer agreed, calling the map “shockingly" competitive in an interview with Carolina Journal.
The four swing districts were decided by less than one percentage point using statewide election data from the outcome of 12 races held from 2016 to 2020.
“If nothing else, this map promises to set up some interesting and potentially consequential matchups — matchups that will draw national money and national attention," Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper told CJ. “The combination of up to four swing districts and potentially tight primaries in the partisan districts ensures that uncertainty will continue to be the watchword in North Carolina politics.”

With the 11th District even more Republican than it was in 2020, Cawthorn will have to look hard at abandoning his move east into what was then a newly drawn district.
Last year, when Cawthorn announced his decision to move districts, he said he wanted to ensure a “go along to get along” Republican wasn’t elected to represent the new district, implying that the district was created for Republican House Speaker Tim Moore, R-Cleveland. “I will not let that happen,” Cawthorn said in a video announcement. Moore announced at that time he would remain in the North Carolina House.
The newly drafted NC-14, which includes half of Rutherford County, all of Cleveland and Gaston and parts of the western Mecklenburg County suburbs, contains very few of Cawthorn’s current voters. It is an evenly divided district winnable by either party. Moore has confirmed in public statements that he is considering running in the new 14th District.
“Many folks have continually asked me to consider running to represent our region of the state in Congress,” Moore said. “I will make a final decision once the maps are approved.”
Cawthorn has yet to announce which district he plans to run.
“As we tumble closer towards the resumption of candidate filing, it will be interesting to watch the strategy behind not just who runs, but thanks to Madison Cawthorn’s norm-breaking behavior, who will run where,” said Cooper, the Western Carolina political scientist.

The new map contains four safe Democratic districts, six Republican districts and four swing seats.

Democratic districts:

Northeastern NC-1  includes: Bertie, Chowan, Edgecombe Franklin, Gates, Greene, Halifax, Hertford, Martin, Nash, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Vance, Warren, Wilson, and parts of Granville, Pitt and Wayne (Open seat)

NC-2  Northern and central Wake County (Rep. Deborah Ross)

NC-4 Caswell, Durham, Orange, Person, and parts of Alamance and Granville  (open seat)

NC-12 Mecklenburg  (Rep. Alma Adams)

Republican districts: These will also change significantly, but the map should achieve a GOP goal of protecting its current incumbents.

NC-3 Beaufort, Carteret, Camden, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Hyde, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow, Pamlico, Pender, Tyrrell, Washington, and part of Pitt (Rep. Greg Murphy)

NC-5 Alleghany, Ashe, Forsyth, Stokes, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes, and parts of Rockingham and Yadkin (Rep. Virginia Foxx)

NC-8 Cabarrus and parts of Davidson, Guilford, and Rowan (Rep. Richard Hudson)

NC-9  Anson, Hoke, Montgomery, Moore, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland, Stanly, Union, and parts of Columbus and Davidson (The seat is technically open, but incumbent Rep. Dan Bishop will run here)

NC-10 Alexander, Avery, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Davie, Iredell, Lincoln, and parts of McDowell, Rowan, and Yadkin (Rep. Patrick McHenry)

NC-11 Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Jackson, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, Mitchell, Polk, Swain, Transylvania, Yancey, and parts of McDowell and Rutherford  (Cawthorn, though Cawthorn has announced plans to run in a different district)

Swing seats 

NC-6 - Chatham, Harnett, Lee, Randolph, and parts of Alamance, Guilford, and Rockingham (Manning)

NC-7 - Bladen, Brunswick, Cumberland, New Hanover, and part of Columbus (Rouzer)

NC-13 - Duplin, Johnston, Sampson, Wake and Wayne (open seat)

NC-14 Cleveland, Gaston, and parts of Mecklenburg and Rutherford (open seat)

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This story was based on reporting by the Carolina Journal.