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Berger concession caps 15-year reign of power

Senate leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, on Tuesday conceded that he lost his District 26 party primary to challenger Sam Page.

“While this was a close race, the voters have spoken, and I congratulate Sheriff Page on his victory,” Berger said in a statement issued by his campaign.

The announcement came after 3%-sample recounts in Rockingham and Guilford counties left the totals in the race unchanged from previous figures showing Page with a 23-vote lead.

The outcome of checks closed the door on the possibility of the State Board of Elections ordering a full hand-to-eye recount of ballots in the two counties. 

Berger also had protests pending in both counties, but these involve fewer votes than the margin between the two candidates.

His only other option for reversing the outcome was a court challenge — a politically fraught move given that Republicans control the election machinery at both the state and local levels.

Berger’s three-paragraph statement said little about his short-term future in the General Assembly, other than that he’s “committed to working with my colleagues in the short session to ensure North Carolina continues to be the best state in the nation in which to live, work, raise a family and retire.” 

He also said he’ll “also do everything I can to support all Republican Senate candidates and protect our supermajority.”

The concession leaves the Senate’s Republican caucus facing the task of picking a new leader for the 2027 session, coming up in January at the latest.

Obvious prospects include Senate Majority Leader Michael Lee, R-New Hanover, Senate Agriculture chair Brent Jackson, R-Sampson, and Majority Co-Whip Todd Johnson, R-Union. Each is among the top non-Berger fundraisers in the GOP caucus.

Lee’s main handicap is that he occupies a perennially vulnerable seat. The Civitas Partisan Index rates it as an R+1 toss-up. His five-plus terms in the Senate are non-consecutive because he lost in 2018, which, like this year’s election, occurred at the midpoint of President Donald Trump’s tenure in the White House.

Other possibilities include Sens. Amy Galey, R-Alamance, and David Craven, R-Randolph. Galey is the caucus’s other co-whip; Craven is a leading fundraiser who’s contributed to the campaign coffers of several of his colleagues.

Berger has led Senate Republicans since 2005 and took the reins in the Senate when the party gained majority control in 2011. Since then, he’s been by all accounts North Carolina’s most powerful politician.

But the hometown challenge from Page — Rockingham County’s sheriff — stems from Berger’s decision to spearhead a 2023 push to legalize non-tribal casinos in North Carolina.

Rockingham County was considered a top prospect to land a casino if the proposal had gone through. Berger has always maintained that he pushed for the idea because a casino had opened just across the border in Virginia. 

But Page led opposition to legalization in Rockingham, and in any event, House Republicans refused to go along.

Polling in 2024 hinted strongly that Berger was vulnerable to a Page challenge, but the sheriff opted instead for an unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor. 

This time around, he signaled early that he’d run against Berger. Mid-race polls rated the outcome as a toss-up, but consistently reported that Rockingham was pro-Page and rural Guilford was pro-Berger. In the end, turnout was stronger in Rockingham.

“I appreciate Sen. Berger’s call earlier today and his concession,” Page said. I’m grateful for his years of service to our state, and I thank him for wishing me the best going forward.”

He added that the face-off had been “a hard-fought campaign” and said the job now is to “come together and focus on winning in November.”

Page will face a Democrat, retired physician Steve Luking, in the upcoming general election. The GOP nominee will be favored: Civitas rates District 26 as an R+9 seat.