Politics

State's U.S. Senate, 11th District are pivotal contests in mid-terms

President Donald Trump listens as North Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley speaks at a campaign rally at Pitt–Greenville Airport on Oct. 20 in Greenville. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper thanks supporters after casting his ballot on the first day of early voting in Raleigh. [ASSOCIATED PRESS PHOTOS]

By The Associated Press, Published: October 30, 2026

Voters in North Carolina will cast their ballots for a new U.S. senator in one of the nation’s most highly scrutinized midterm contests, a race that may lay bare whether an association with President Donald Trump represents a boon or a liability in the current political climate.

To Democrats, the election to determine who will take over the seat held by Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican who announced his retirement last year after clashing with Trump, is a crucial opportunity to secure an additional seat in the chamber and perhaps even tilt the balance of power in their favor.

Facing off to take over Tillis’s seat are Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, and Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman who has Trump's endorsement.

Republicans in other midterm battleground states have sought to distance themselves from the president as voters grow increasingly concerned about the economy and his approval rating ebbs. But Whatley, who Trump personally chose to lead the RNC after he supported the president’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, has continued to cast himself as the president’s ally. And Trump has emphasized their connection while campaigning with Whatley, telling attendees at a September rally in Gastonia “in this election, I’m asking you to pretend I’m on the ballot just one more time.”

Whatley focused much of his early campaign on crime, claiming that Cooper’s policies as governor weakened public safety in North Carolina, though violent crime has fallen in the state since pandemic-era highs, according to state statistics. Cooper, who served two terms as governor before leaving office in 2025, has largely focused his messaging on the affordability crisis, kicking off his general election campaign in March with the slogan “make stuff cost less.”

Cooper raised about $49.6 million as of mid-October, dominating Whatley’s $13.7 million. Millions in independent expenditures have poured into the race, though in early October, the Senate Leadership Fund, a major Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, cancelled millions in advertising planned for North Carolina, signaling the party's diminishing confidence in Whatley.

Nevertheless, Cooper will have to buck trends to flip the Senate seat blue. North Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008. The state has also favored the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1980, except in 2008 when former President Barack Obama won the state by less than half of 1 percentage point.

Cooper served two terms as North Carolina’s governor, from 2017 to 2025. In the 2016 election, he won the governorship by a razor-thin margin while Trump carried the state by nearly four percentage points. In 2020, Cooper widened his margin of victory by a few percentage points, and though Trump carried the state over former President Joe Biden, his margin of victory fell to just over 1 percentage point. To emerge victorious, Cooper would need to replicate his success in gubernatorial races, winning not only North Carolina’s urban centers but also remaining competitive in suburban counties that typically favor Republicans.

Two of North Carolina’s 14 congressional districts will also be watched closely for their potential to affect the balance of power in the U.S. House.

The 11th Congressional District, which is in the western part of the state, features another competitive race. Republican U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards dropped his reelection campaign in August after the House Ethics Committee recommended he be censured for inappropriate conduct toward two female aides in his office. State House Rep. Jennifer Balkcom was nominated by a Republican executive committee in the district to run in Edwards’s stead with less than three months until the election.

Balkcom, who grew up in a farming family and was endorsed by Trump, is competing against Democrat Jamie Ager, a farmer whose grandfather once represented the district. Both candidates have made securing funding for further recovery from Hurricane Helene, which devastated the state in 2024, a priority in their campaigns. 

In the 1st District in the northeast corner of the state, Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis is in a vulnerable position as he faces a rematch with his 2024 Republican challenger, Laurie Buckhout. Davis has represented the district since 2023 but is facing an uphill battle to retain his seat after Republicans redrew the district’s boundaries to disadvantage Democrats, shifting a share of Black voters to the neighboring 3rd District.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, mayor of Raleigh, statewide ballot measures, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state House and Court of Appeals.

How many people voted in the last midterm election?

About 3.7 million votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 58% of votes in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina were cast early or by absentee ballot. The latest advance vote totals for North Carolina can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Most North Carolina counties are expected to release all or nearly all the results from mail voting in the first vote updates of the night, before any in-person Election Day results are released. About a third of counties are expected to release the results from early in-person voting in the first vote updates of the night.

How long does vote counting usually take?

The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 7:35 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, five minutes after polls closed. The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 9:17 p.m. ET, and 90% of votes reporting at 11:36 p.m. ET.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

There are no automatic recounts in North Carolina, but candidates may request one if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total votes or 10,000 votes for statewide races or 1% for non-statewide races. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.